CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2023-08-23T02:17:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 729
Longitude (deg): W37
Latitude (deg): S22
Half-angular width (deg): 16

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Aug 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low, with only low level C-class flares observed this
period. Region 3405 (N10W48, Hsx/alpha) was the main flare producer,
including the largest flare of the period; a C3.9/Sf flare at 23/1407
UTC. This region continued to decay throughout the period and became
less active by the end of the day. Region 3413 (N10E46, Fho/beta) was
the only spot group that exhibited any sort of growth, though it was
still too foreshortened to get an accurate magnetic analysis. It did,
however, produce a C1.7 flare at 23/1516 UTC and a C2.5 flare at 23/1616
UTC. There is also a chance that this could actually be two spot groups,
but that determination will be made when it rotates farther onto the
visible disk and a more accurate analysis can be made. The remaining
numbered sunspot regions were either in decay or stable.

The filament eruption observed off the SW sector of the limb, first
visible in coronagraph imagery near 23/0259 UTC, was analyzed and
indicates a possible weak impact at Earth around midday on 27 Aug.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain low, with a slight chance for
M-class flares, for the next three days (24-26 Aug) .

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 24 Aug, eventually reaching high levels by 25-26 Aug.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
readings through 26 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected a mostly background regime. Total
field strength averaged near 5 nT,  Bz was generally north to
near-neutral with no significant deviations, and wind speeds decreased
from over 460 km/s to around 425 km/s. The phi angle was mostly
negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to isolated, weak enhancements
through 26 Aug with persistent, yet intermittent, CH HSS influences.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected through 26 Aug with
intermittent, weak HSS influence.

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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